Where Could Labour Target In A Second Snap Election?

Seven weeks ago, Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party were staring down the barrel of a monumental defeat. A 24 point polling gap spelled disaster for the Labour Party, yet their campaign managed to turn around this mountainous deficit and get within two and a half points of the Conservatives. Labour’s election hopes to begin with were so dire they were forced to be conservative in their approach, looking to nail down safe seats as a priority. But as the campaign and their army of momentum volunteers went to work, seats that seemed previously unassailable (such as Canterbury and Kensington) fell victim to the Labour surge.

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Since the election , Labour have identified seats that they feel they could win to challenge Theresa May and surpass the Tories as the largest party. A Survation poll released today actually putting Labour ahead of the Conservatives for the first time since May 2016! All that said, we wanted to look at the seats where Labour could take seats from the Tories in the event of another snap election.

Seats like Southampton Itchen, Pudsey, and, rather tantalisingly for Labour supporters, Hastings – Amber Rudd’s seat – are all within reach. Given the heavy criticism that Theresa May is coming under from her own party, Jeremy Corbyn, and the media (now the tabloids have turned on her), a second election could be held within the year – so an ambitious Labour campaign would no doubt identify these seats as up for grabs. Corbyn has openly drawn comparisons to the 1974 election year, where a minority Labour government was formed and then they consolidated on their work later in the year, ultimately winning a majority.

A coalition of Labour, SNP, Liberal Democrats, and the Greens currently makes 310 MPs, so very few seats would need to change hands to give a progressive coalition a chance at governing. Of the 45 seats we have listed here, the Labour Party would need only 16 seats to be able to form a majority progressive coalition or just 29 to form a Labour/SNP coalition, or these 45 plus a further 19 to form a Labour majority government. Unfortunately for Labour the Conservatives actually increased their vote-share in this election, so an outright Labour majority seems unlikely, though stranger things have happened in 21st century politics.

So here are our list of seats with narrow majorities! (Source: Britain Elects)

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Constituency Country Region Majority Conservatives Labour
Southampton, Itchen England South East 31 21,773 21,742
Preseli Pembrokeshire Wales Wales 314 18,302 17,988
Pudsey England Yorkshire & Humber 331 25,550 25,219
Thurrock England East of England 345 19,880 19,535
Hastings & Rye England South East 346 25,668 25,322
Chipping Barnet England London 353 25,679 25,326
Norwich North England East of England 507 21,900 21,393
Calder Valley England Yorkshire & Humber 609 26,790 26,181
Aberconwy Wales Wales 635 14,337 13,702
Stoke-on-Trent South England West Midlands 663 20,451 19,788
Telford England West Midlands 720 21,777 21,057
Northampton North England East Midlands 807 19,065 18,258
Broxtowe England East Midlands 863 25,983 25,120
Bolton West England North West 936 24,459 23,523
Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland England North East 1,020 23,643 22,623
Mansfield England East Midlands 1,057 23,392 22,335
Hendon England London 1,076 25,078 24,002
Northampton South England East Midlands 1,159 19,231 18,072
Pendle England North West 1,279 21,986 20,707
Morecambe & Lunesdale England North West 1,399 21,773 20,374
Putney England London 1,554 20,679 19,125
Camborne & Redruth England South West 1,577 23,001 21,424
Finchley & Golders Green England London 1,657 24,599 22,942
Copeland England North West 1,695 21,062 19,367
Milton Keynes South England South East 1,725 30,652 28,927
Harrow East England London 1,757 25,129 23,372
Milton Keynes North England South East 1,915 30,307 28,392
Blackpool North & Cleveleys England North West 2,023 20,255 18,232
Watford England East of England 2,092 26,731 24,639
Morley & Outwood England Yorkshire & Humber 2,104 26,550 24,446
Vale of Glamorgan Wales Wales 2,190 25,501 23,311
Chingford & Woodford Green England London 2,438 23,076 20,638
Crawley England South East 2,457 25,426 22,969
South Swindon England South West 2,464 24,809 22,345
Worcester England West Midlands 2,490 24,713 22,223
Carlisle England North West 2,599 21,472 18,873
Walsall North England West Midlands 2,601 18,919 16,318
Corby England East Midlands 2,690 29,534 26,844
North East Derbyshire England East Midlands 2,861 24,784 21,923
Reading West England South East 2,876 25,311 22,435
Southport England North West 2,914 18,541 15,627
Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire Wales Wales 3,110 19,771 16,661
Cities of London & Westminster England London 3,148 18,005 14,857
Rossendale & Darwen England North West 3,216 25,499 22,283

7 thoughts on “Where Could Labour Target In A Second Snap Election?

  1. Don’t forget plaid cymru as part of the progressive alliance.

    The Lib Dems also have low hanging fruit in Richmond Park and St Ives, and several other seats if Labour stands down.

    1. It all depends on whether the Lib Dems and Labour are willing to work together, so that Labour would stand aside. I suspect they would run again as usual, but that the Tories would be less popular, and there would be no need to worry about standing down.

  2. There is a real justification for an alternative to the existing right wing news Cartel. It is a truth that most of the world’s news provision is controlled by right wing moguls. Their intention is to further the cause of capitalism and increase the planet’s differentials between wealthy and poor. Left Insider offers left wing articles from reliable news sites like Novara and Left Foot Forward etc. We all have the right to fully exploit our own qualities and we all have the obligation to help others maximise theirs.

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